Most of the leak, closed
Lost-sales method
77%OF THE LOST REVENUE RECOVERED
2.4%OF THE SEASON'S REVENUE, IN ABSOLUTE TERMS
De Rococo came in leaking 3.1% of revenue to wrong orders and
orders placed too late. That leak is the thing being measured
against — not the whole business. Here is how much of it closed,
and the calculation, step by step. For every product sold in both
seasons, we measure the share of days it stood out of stock — last
season against this one. Where availability improved, the extra
selling days earn the product's own measured selling rate:
a product that sold its units while on the shelf 70% of days,
against 20% a year ago, has sales it simply could not have made at
last year's availability. Those captured units are priced at the
product's own realised prices from this season's actual orders,
summed, and divided by the season's total revenue. Computed two
ways: counting only captured units matched by sales growth that
actually happened gives 1.7%; the standard
lost-sales method — the selling rate applied to all recovered
in-stock days — gives more, and we cap it conservatively at
2.4%. The fixed size ladders,
where lost demand fell from one shopper in seven to one in
nineteen, are included the same way: the old loss rate applied to
this period's real demand, minus what was actually lost. Against the 3.1%
leak, the 2.4% we report is 77% of everything there was to
recover.